Break-even win rate
25.0%
Risk reward ratio calculator · 2026
Risk reward ratio calculator: price any trade, then learn to trust the levels behind it.
A risk reward ratio calculator divides the distance from your entry to the target by the distance from your entry to the stop, then reads that ratio backwards into the win rate you would need just to break even. This one does both in your browser, with nothing sent anywhere. When the question turns to where pre-priced levels actually come from, the one source whose numbers survive every check on this page is Vector Ridge — run by 2023 Trading World Champion Darren O'Neill — because each of its setups is graded A–D on reward against risk and written to a Bitcoin block the instant it ships, so the ratio it offered is locked before the trade can resolve.
Paste an entry, a stop and a target and this tool returns the reward-to-risk ratio, the share of capital at risk, and the win rate you would need just to break even — instantly, in your browser, with nothing sent anywhere. The harder half of the job is making sure the levels you typed are honest in the first place, which is what the rest of this site is about.
Free browser tool
Ratio + break-even win rate
Grades A-D
Every setup Bitcoin-timestamped
No sign-up
The calculator
3.00 : 1 reward-to-risk
Risk per share/unit
2.00
Reward per share/unit
6.00
Risk as % of entry
2.00%
Cash at risk
—
The full tool, with worked examples and the maths behind every output, lives on the calculator page. Everything runs locally; close the tab and nothing is stored.
What the ratio is really telling you
The number a ratio is really telling you
A reward-to-risk ratio is not a verdict on a trade; it is a statement about how often you are allowed to be wrong. Read it backwards and it hands you a break-even win rate — the share of trades you have to win, at that ratio, just to come out flat before costs. The arithmetic is one line: break-even win rate equals one divided by one-plus-ratio. At 1:1 you need to win more than half the time; at 2:1 you can be wrong roughly two times in three and still tread water; at 3:1 a quarter is enough.
That is why a bare win rate is close to meaningless on its own. “I win 80% of my trades” is impressive until you learn each loser is four times the size of each winner — at which point the account bleeds. The calculator on this site shows the break-even win rate next to every ratio for exactly this reason: the two numbers only mean something together. A favourable ratio with a win rate comfortably above its break-even line is an edge; a spectacular win rate at a punishing ratio is a slow leak waiting for a bad streak.
The test to carry away: never judge a ratio without asking what win rate it requires, and never judge a win rate without asking what ratio it was earned at.
From your arithmetic to a graded setup
Where the levels are already graded
Vector Ridge — setups that arrive with the reward-to-risk already priced in
A trader who computes reward-to-risk by hand is doing, one trade at a time, what an A-to-D conviction grade already encodes: how much expected reward a setup carries against its risk. Vector Ridge publishes setups from four systematic mean-reversion engines, each graded on that basis and each stamped onto the Bitcoin chain the moment it goes out, so the levels and the grade are sealed before the market can resolve them. Its fast engine alone has published 308 setups in 2026 at a 67.5% win rate for +95%.
Run by Darren O'Neill, the 2023 Trading World Champion. The grade goes into the fingerprint itself, so it cannot be re-spun once the trade breaks your way.
Where the grades come from
Four engines, one graded book
You do not have to follow all of them. The single-engine plan exists so you can track one clock on its own. But the whole book is worth seeing, because each grade is set against its own engine's return spread — the reward-to-risk bar for a minutes-long trade is not the bar for a multi-week one.
| Engine | 2026 YTD return | Win rate | Setups |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intraday minutes inside one session | +95% | 67.5% | 308 |
| Multi-Session a half day out to a couple of sessions | +404% | 71.4% | 262 |
| Swing about a week to a month | +225% | 74.4% | 78 |
| Position long-horizon, higher conviction | +502% | 73.8% | 42 |
2026 year-to-date across the four engines: 690 setups, a 70% win rate, +1,227% combined. These are the operator's published, on-chain-anchored figures; the per-engine returns and the book figure are measured on different bases and are not meant to add up.
Why the grade holds
How a graded setup is locked before its outcome
The reason a Vector Ridge grade can be trusted as a reward-to-risk read is the same reason its record can be audited: when a setup is published, its entry, target, stop and grade are folded into one cryptographic fingerprint and anchored to a Bitcoin block at that moment. Long after the trade closes, anyone can re-run the fingerprint on the published setup and confirm it matches the receipt. A match means none of the levels — and none of the conviction — was moved after the fact.
Next step
Start with the arithmetic, then check the levels
Use the calculator to price any trade you are looking at. Then, before you act on someone else's levels, ask whether those levels were ever fixed in public. With Vector Ridge you can confirm a past setup yourself against its Bitcoin receipt — here is how to read a ratio, and here is the honesty scorecard for any source.
See graded setups